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Bitcoin ETFs Debut with a Splash

January 15, 2024

The long-awaited Bitcoin ETFs debuted in yesterday's trading, making quite a splash.  Three Bitcoin ETFs were among the five most actively traded ETFs: GBTC, IBIT, and FBTC, all trading more than 10 million shares.

While the performance of the Bitcoin ETFs was underwhelming, with an average loss for the day of 6% compared with stock market averages which were down about 0.2%, which is what you'd expect when the price of Bitcoin drops - these ETFs appear to be the real deal in terms of trading activity.

Momentum traders are looking for volatility and the Bitcoin ETFs delivered.  We calculated the standard deviation of one-minute price changes through the day and the Bitcoin ETFs led the pack.



The standard deviation of price changes for BRRR was 0.171, but as a percentage of its price, it's 1.42% for a one minute price change provides plenty of action - nearly 10x the volatility of SPY.

There was also a surprising variation in the daily price changes for the ETFs which should be minimal since they are tracking the same asset, Bitcoin (I assume that's BTCUSD). If these differences persist and they exceed the bid/ask spreads, there may be an opportunity for pairs trading. GBTC only posted a 4.68% loss for the day compared with DEFI, which lost a whopping 8.15%. Whether it will be possible to arb the difference in prices between the various ETFs will be a function of the bid/ask spreads (which didn't look too bad based on spot checking yesterday) and whatever trading costs you incur with your broker-dealer.

It's not yet possible to short the Bitcoin ETFs so momentum traders will have to limit their interest to one side of the trading.   Overall, not a bad debut for active trading.

The author is CEO of MachineTrader.io, a low code/node code software platform that can be used by non programmers to automate their trading.

The Content in this article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained here constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by me or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of this information.



BY
Dan Savage, CEO

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